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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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